Crossing the Red Line: Iran Tensions Threaten Oil Price Hike; Affects PH 

In a grave escalation of tensions in the Middle East, U.S. warplanes joined Israeli forces in striking three Iranian nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, using precision bunker-buster munitions. 

The operation was confirmed by President Trump and later reported by international observers.

Addressing the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Istanbul on Sunday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the strikes, stating that the U.S. and Israel had “crossed a very big red line by attacking nuclear facilities.” He asserted that the attacks violated international law, the United Nations (UN) Charter, and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Araghchi further announced that diplomatic channels are now effectively closed. He is also scheduled to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, emphasizing that “the time for diplomacy has passed” unless the strikes cease.

In response to the attacks, Iran’s parliament passed a non-binding resolution endorsing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This move is now being seriously debated in Tehran as a form of retaliation. 

At a mere 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and is considered one of the world’s most critical maritime routes for global energy transport.

This strategic chokepoint facilitates the daily passage of approximately 20 million barrels of oil – roughly 20 percent of global oil consumption – along with significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Key energy consumers that heavily depend on this route include China, India, Japan, and South Korea, while major exporters such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE would also be directly affected by any disruption.

News of Iran’s threats sent immediate shockwaves through global markets. Oil prices jumped to a five-month high in Asia Monday, the first trading day after the U.S. struck Iran’s nuclear facilities on Sunday. Brent crude futures briefly surged before prices later stabilized. However, analysts warn that a complete closure of the strait could cause oil prices to rise as high as 110 to 150 USD per barrel. 

Goldman Sachs projected a risk premium of about 12 USD per barrel if geopolitical instability persists. 

Any restriction on this crucial trade route would severely disrupt global supply chains and trigger inflationary pressures worldwide.

For countries like the Philippines, which rely heavily on imported energy, the economic consequences could be deeply felt. A significant increase in local fuel prices is likely, affecting transportation, agriculture, and retail sectors. 

This could further drive inflation, increase the cost of basic goods and services, and place added pressure on Filipino households. Additionally, industries and shipping operations may face higher insurance premiums or be forced to reroute, adding to overall economic strain.

Iran now considers the joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike a red line breach. Any move to close the Strait of Hormuz could trigger dangerous escalation, surge global energy prices, and severely impact vulnerable nations like the Philippines. 

As the international community awaits Tehran’s next move, the need for vigilance, diplomacy, and the protection of vital maritime corridors has never been more urgent.